Commentary by Matthew Vegari, Head of Research
The U.S. economy defied expectations after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with resilient consumer spending powering growth despite surging energy prices. Today, as conflict with Iran drives oil above $100 a barrel, the economy is far more vulnerable to shocks—unemployment is rising and job growth has stalled, and consumer spending now depends on real wage growth that will be throttled by elevated energy prices. Can the U.S. economy skirt recession again?
Read the full commentary from the Research Desk in Barron’s.
Timely analysis of movements observed in Clearwater’s proprietary database and indices, exploring monetary policy, credit conditions, foreign exchange, equities, alternative assets, and more.
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