Outlook ’26: A data-driven take on an economy that (still) wants to hang on

In June, the Clearwater Research Desk called this cycle “the economy that wants to hang on,” despite widespread fears of an imminent recession. Looking ahead to 2026, we maintain a similar level of restrained optimism. Despite labor market softness, the US economy appears poised to weather the storm again.

Our 2026 Outlook not only leverages the typical publicly available data – but also leverages the atypical, our own proprietary database. We’re looking out and, for the first time, looking in.

Key insights:

• Monetary policy: Easing never meant easy – why the Fed’s path will stay cautious.
• Long rates: How low can they go? Structural forces may keep a floor under yields.
• Credit: Risk-on amid strong fundamentals and the rise of private credit.
• US exceptionalism: Engines of resilience that keep the cycle alive.
• AI: A tailwind and a challenge – investment trends and portfolio exposure.

Dive into the report now.